McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXUS63 KGLD 160005
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
605 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning canceled.

- For the rest of this week, expect dry conditions and a day-
  to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record
  high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the
  week.

- Fire weather concerns are seen in East Central Colorado
  Tuesday through Saturday due to breezy winds with relative
  humidity values around 15%.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The remainder of the high wind warning has been canceled due to
wind gust falling below warning criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows an upper
trough over the CWA with its axis over the eastern portion of
the CWA this afternoon. A strong surface low around 992mb is
also seen moving eastward across IL, which has been responsible
for the inclement weather in the Great Plains and the Great
Lakes areas today. Current surface observations show around a
5-8mb pressure gradient across the CWA with higher pressure to
the north and lower pressure to the south. With this setup,
strong to damaging northerly winds gusting up to around 70 mph
continue in the CWA through 9 PM CT/8 PM MT (See the High Wind
Warning in effect for more details and impacts). These high
winds will allow blowing dust to continue in today as well as
some possible smoke from the Cottonwood and Morrill Fires in NE
to filter into the area. Those sensitive to reduced air quality
should continue to take heed due to the dust and smoke
potential through the rest of the day. Those traveling through
the region should also use caution especially if driving on
east-west roads such as I-70 as the strong crosswinds and
reduced visibility due to blowing dust will continue through
this evening. While the most of the CWA stays dry for the rest
of the day, latest runs of the CAMs show a 10-15% during the
late afternoon for a brief isolated shower in the CO portion
with Yuma county seeing the higher end chances.

For tonight, forecast guidance has the upper trough continuing
its journey eastward and putting the CWA underneath the
its backside with a NNW upper air flow. While area winds will
decrease going into the night, breezy winds gusting up to around
15 mph are expected tonight that turn a bit more northwesterly
after midnight. Colder low temperatures compared those experienced
last night are also forecast tonight with the recent cold front
passage ranging between a few degrees on either side of the 10
degree mark. Wind chills early tomorrow morning will drop as
low as -5 to 5 degrees.

On Monday, models show the CWA between the upper trough to the
east and a strong high pressure ridge out to the west. At the
surface, dry conditions generally will persist through the day.
Temperatures look to rebound with daytime highs ranging between
40 and 50 degrees. Winds tomorrow expect to be much lighter
compared to the winds seen today with gusts up to 20 mph in the
forecast. The latest run of the HRRR does not show much in the
way of wildfire smoke, but cannot rule out the possibility of
some filtering in with area winds having a northerly component.
Clouds begin to move over the area during the evening leaving
cloudy skies through the night. Low temperatures in the 20s
look to be on tap for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No changes seen in the long term forecast as a long wave ridge
over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the
majority of this week. Looking at probabilities for highs during
the latter half of the week, the current forecast still looks
to be well on track. Temperatures will warm through the week
with not much seen in the way of precipitation. As for now, well
above normal temperatures are in the forecast later this week
with daytime highs on Friday and Saturday currently forecast
between 85-90 degrees.

The main concern though this week will be fire weather with the
increasing temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast.
Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% across most if
not all of the area for the good majority of the week. Currently
Tuesday and Wednesday have the potential to be the breeziest
with an increasing 850mb jet embedded within the northwest flow.
Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are forecast Tuesday favoring the
northwest portion of the area. With anticipated deep mixing in
place would not be surprised if each afternoon localized gusts
up to 25 mph would occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will continue to
decline, then become light as they turn to the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong to damaging winds are forecast to continue through this
afternoon and evening with northerly winds of 35-45 mph gusting
up to around 70 mph. Wind direction is not expected to shift
much if at all during this time. Going into the night, GDFI
values drop into the single digits as winds lessen quite a bit
with gusts up to around 15 mph. After midnight, winds look to
take on a northwesterly component with colder area low
temperatures in the upper single digits to lower teens range.

Fire weather concerns may continue through this week as well
with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures
especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from
NIFC show ERC`s returning into the 90th percentile. At this time
there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing
most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at
least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg