McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS63 KGLD 282249
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
449 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week.

- Isolated storm chances Monday in eastern areas, with more
  scattered storms in the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Severe chances will be low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Fairly stagnant upper pattern will continue with the main
features being a ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and a
trough over the Great Basin. This will result in southwest flow
over the Central Plains. A cut off low over Montana today and
tomorrow will lift into Canada by Tuesday, weakening the flow
over the plains. Embedded impulses in the southwest flow will
result in scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances.
Convection initiates on various surface boundaries either near
or south of the area, including an old frontal boundary, the dry
line and lee trough. CAMs suggest that the convection on Monday
will probably stay just east of the area, but appears to be
better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with the storms moving
out of southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The environment
will be weakly to moderately unstable each day, highest values
in eastern areas. Deep layer shear will be strongest on Monday,
around 40 kts, but weakens Tuesday and Wednesday with the
diminished winds aloft. If storms can develop in the area on
Monday then may see a severe threat in far eastern areas (Norton
and Graham counties in northwest Kansas) where highest instability
will reside. Those threats would be large hail and damaging
winds if they were to develop. While coverage may be somewhat
higher Tuesday and Wednesday, the weakening shear will probably
result in pulse updrafts which may briefly reach low end severe
criteria for hail but perhaps present a greater wind threat
given favorable DCAPE in the hot and relatively dry environment.
Temperatures through the period will continue above normal with
highs mostly in the 90s with a few spots reaching triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is in favor of troughing
across the Western United States with an upper-level high across the
east Thursday morning. This would support southwesterly flow aloft
over the County Warning Area (CWA), and a broad surface low across
the Central High Plains. Deepening of the surface low due to lee
cyclogenesis and warming at 700-mb, along with a pronounced
high in the Southeastern United States, would establish
moderate to strong southerly flow across the area. Winds are
currently forecast to sustain between 10 and 20 kts (12-23 mph),
with gusts between 30 and 35 mph possible. Hot conditions are
forecast, with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s Thursday
afternoon.

Just south of the surface low, winds may be a bit more southwesterly
than southerly, which would promote dryer conditions, particularly
across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas.
Relative humidities (RH) are currently forecast as low as the single-
digits Thursday afternoon. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that
this zone has a 40% chance or greater to experience wind gusts that
meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions (>25 mph), with
as high as a 75% chance in Southwest Kit Carson and Northwest
Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. Even so, elevated amounts of
precipitation experienced recently may keep critical fire weather
conditions to a minimum, depending on how much vegetation can dry
out. If significant drying is allowed to occur across this area,
then a Red Flag Warning may be needed Thursday afternoon.

Conditions look to be a bit more moist along and east of Kansas
Highway 25, where showers and thunderstorms may develop along a
dryline. Up to 3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) may be in place across this area based
on LREF guidance, though 0-500mb wind shear is forecast to be
around 35 kts on the high end. As such, the strongest
thunderstorms are forecast to be marginally severe.

Similar conditions to Thursday are forecast on Friday, with highs in
the upper 90s to mid 100s. Dry conditions across East-Central
Colorado and West-Central Kansas may continue, with gusts 25-30 mph
still possible. However, thunderstorms are not in the forecast
across eastern portions of the forecast area Friday. NBM
guidance suggests less than a 10% chance for all areas to see
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Friday.


***Saturday/Sunday***

Ensemble guidance supports upper-level troughing from the west
moving in overhead sometime Saturday. This would produce northerly
surface winds across the forecast region as the associated surface
low moves eastward. Conditions may cool slightly, with highs
forecast in the low 90s to low 100s Saturday, and low to mid 90s
Sunday. Dry conditions may linger across East-Central Colorado and
West-Central Kansas Saturday, with RH still in the low to mid teens
in some places. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast again
Saturday as well, with LREF guidance suggesting up to 3500 J/kg
of surface-based CAPE possible. The same guidance suggests
0-500mb shear may reach 35-40 kts across Southwest Nebraska and
Northwest Kansas where storms would form. Some storms may be
allowed to become severe under this scenario. As ridging and a
surface high moves in on Sunday, dry conditions may continue to
diminish, along with the mitigation of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Southerly surface winds will gust up to 30 kts at times
tonight and Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024